The U.S. administration is currently grappling with a question of unprecedented scale: is it possible to forcibly change the government of a nation with 90 million people? As the USS Abraham Lincoln moves into striking range, the debate in Washington has shifted from the “if” of an attack to the “after” of a potential collapse. The Iranian government is bracing for a strike designed to “topple the regime,” but the sheer size of the country remains the greatest deterrent.
President Trump has reportedly hesitated to launch a full-scale assault because he lacks a “detailed battle plan” for the post-Khamenei era. Unlike smaller nations where regime change has been attempted, Iran possesses a massive, complex society and a hardened security apparatus. The fear is that a strike on the leadership could lead to a fragmented, war-torn state rather than a stable democracy, a scenario that would haunt the region for decades.
Inside Iran, the leadership is using this fear to their advantage. They are portraying the protesters as “terrorist-like” groups that would lead the country into a civil war if the clerical system were removed. By bracing for an attack and shutting down the internet, the government is attempting to show that they are the only force capable of maintaining order, however brutal that order may be.
The 60% inflation rate and the “body ransom” scandals suggest that the regime’s “order” is already failing. For the 90 million Iranians, the status quo has become intolerable. The U.S. strategy is to use the carrier strike group to provide a “decisive option” that removes the top layer of leadership, hoping that the middle ranks of the military and the civil service will defect to the side of the protesters.
As the U.S. fleet prepares for its “sustainment” exercises, the 90 million people of Iran are waiting in the dark. The Iranian government is bracing for a strike that could end forty-seven years of history, but the world is bracing for what comes next. Regime change is easy to say, but for a nation of this size, it is a leap into the unknown.